I attended a different kind of an investment conference, on Friday/Saturday. Held in Vancouver, it was an annual conference for those who invest in the stock market side (I always think of this as the alternative to a real estate "hard asset" choice, for one's investment portfolio). In times of great change, I think it's important to be places/listen to things beyond the "regular box" of our own career perspectives. We might learn something that will give us a "path".
There were several speakers, and although they all deal in this equity investment world, they held quite dramatically opposite thoughts of where we are, right now, and where we might be going.
I was interested that one person actually described this chaotic and deleveraging time, as a normal correction/back step, in an otherwise prosperity driven inflationary cycle, that, in his opinion, has been with us since 1933. If you've just lost your job to the downsizing movement underway, or may lose your house or your car, due to debt overload, in your personal sphere, this is going to seem like a bizarre thought, indeed. A lot of most interesting charts were on the big screens, to "substantiate" his thought process.
Another speaker said that the U.S. dollar would win by default, and would remain the international currency standard. The U.S. dollar's main competing currency had been the Euro dollar, and in this speaker's analysis, the Euro was in steep trouble, as were all the European Untion Member countries. He also felt that China would have to retract its growth spiral and would fall back into political struggle. The outcome might be a free market economy. Hard times for Asia, seemed to be his theme. He also felt that commodity driven currencies were also in trouble (Australia? Canada? Russia?).
Someone else gave a twenty point plan of reasons to be optimistic. He was "bullish", it seemed on commodity driven economies.
Another person was forecasting a 60 cent to 71 cent Can. dollar, against the U.S., and was feeling that things would not improve until the third quarter of this year, with many people not seeing a lift until early in 2010.
Another speaker pushed gold as the place to "be".
A very daring person gave an insight into option trading. Mmmmm....... I have to go learn about puts and calls, before sitting in on that kind of a breakout session.
Someone else thought we were into a very long term downturn, to be measured in years/not months, re any recovery, and it was based on his sense that demand destruction is underway, with a result of a balanced global economy. He described it as a cleansing process, in both corporate and individual portfolios. Will there be anyone left at the end of this scrubbing time???
More than ever, I was reminded of the world that Charles Dickens so aptly described. His main themes were about the disappearance of the old Agrarian world, and the upsurge of the new Industrial world. For those passing off, it was painful and destructive. For the new world of the Industrial Revolution, there were terrible injustices, but also huge gains. It was what I call a "sandpaper" moment, between two ways of being, and these societal shift times can be very painful to all involved. I think we're in one, right now.
There didn't seem to be any "meeting ground" among all these speakers. They all sounded as if they were "right". An indicator, I suppose, that this turmoil, as we segue from an Industrial Age into an Information Age, is still with us, and we're all still treading water in the swimming pool of change, not sure where or when to strike out for the ladder to firm ground. Important to hear lots of opinion, though, so that we can bring our personal editing function to the table, too, and be ready to start down the path of the "real future".
A selection of ideas might help us to ride out this shift moment; important to be in the now, in any case. Your ideas? Always welcome!
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